Phase 6 · Model lab
Baseline forecast evaluation
Ensemble forecasts power production dashboards. These baselines establish the comparison bar on weekly weighted activity index for Illinois and Cook County. The Neural ODE is documented separately as a learned dynamics research layer and it is calibrated and useful at short horizons, but not promoted at 4 weeks.
What this page is
A behind-the-scenes look at the forecasting models and how accurate they are. The ensemble baseline powers the public dashboards. The Neural ODE is a research experiment that is not used on the dashboards. If you just want the current situation, the region dashboards are the place to start.
Model runs
Performance metrics
How to read these results
- Persistence assumes next week equals this week, which is often hard to beat at 1-week horizon.
- Moving average smooths recent weeks; useful when signal is noisy.
- Trend extrapolates recent direction; can overshoot at longer horizons.
- Seasonal naive compares to the same week last year (52-week lag).
- Ensemble averages component baselines for dashboard display; Neural ODE (Phase 7) must beat these on held-out weeks to be promoted.